The economic recovery of Afghanistan aligns with Uzbekistan’s strategic interests in expanding export markets, fostering joint production, and strengthening transport connectivity with South Asia. As business activity revives in the neighboring country and household incomes rise, demand for Uzbek goods and services naturally increases. Strengthening mutually beneficial economic ties ultimately underpins regional stability.
The next critical objective of cooperation is to reinforce trade growth with joint manufacturing ventures and long-term contracts. Achieving this requires factoring in the needs of entrepreneurs when developing infrastructure and implementing interstate agreements. Supplying enterprises with raw materials, energy, and skilled labor, alongside harmonizing product delivery terms, will facilitate this objective. Consequently, Uzbekistan’s potential to diversify its exports of goods and services will expand significantly. The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) serve as a conceptual framework for assessing how this cooperation impacts local employment and household incomes.
Uzbekistan’s policy toward Afghanistan prioritizes consistent dialogue and pragmatic economic engagement. In September 2025, addressing the 80th session of the UN General Assembly, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev stressed the imperative of preventing Afghanistan’s international isolation. He also proposed the adoption of a special resolution on developing international transport and energy corridors transiting through the country. This initiative aims to integrate Afghanistan more deeply into regional economic networks.
Research summarized in the World Trade Organization’s 2023 report indicates that robust trade relations can contribute to reducing the likelihood of conflicts. Cooperation anchored in agreed rules reinforces this dynamic by clearly defining mutual obligations, maintaining regular dialogue, and establishing reliable dispute-resolution mechanisms.
Trade statistics clearly demonstrate the ongoing expansion of these economic ties. According to updated data from the National Statistical Committee released on July 15, 2026, bilateral foreign trade turnover reached $867.5 million in 2023, $1.138 billion in 2024, and $1.6806 billion in 2025. Calculations based on unrounded figures show that the 2025 indicator increased by 47.7% compared to 2024, and by 93.7% compared to 2023. Thus, the nominal dollar value of trade doubled over a two-year period.
Furthermore, the committee’s updated database of September 26, 2026, registers bilateral trade for January–August at $1.4244 billion, representing an increase of nearly 41% compared to $1.103 billion over the same period in 2025. This dynamic broadens the economic foundation for establishing long-term corporate partnerships. Specifically, product delivery contracts can be augmented with agreements on processing, packaging, and equipment maintenance. As a result, Uzbek enterprises can diversify their revenue streams, generating income not only from merchandise sales but also from the export of technology and technical services.
The socio-economic situation in Afghanistan underlines the necessity of channeling such projects toward job creation. According to World Bank assessments from May 26, 2026, Afghanistan’s economy grew by 4.8% in 2025; however, due to rapid population growth, per capita GDP declined by 5.6%. Meanwhile, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) data indicates that 74% of the population faced difficulties meeting basic living needs in 2025. Processing local raw materials, vocational training, and supporting small entrepreneurship will help raise family incomes, thereby strengthening consumer demand and underpinning the foundation of bilateral trade.
Promising areas for joint manufacturing have already been identified through political dialogue. In July 2025, during President Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s meeting with the Afghan delegation, cooperation in textiles, pharmaceuticals, and agricultural processing was thoroughly discussed. Cross-border industrial cooperation is best initiated through projects with clearly identified raw material sources and established markets. For instance, in a processing initiative, the Uzbek partner could supply equipment and staff training, while the Afghan partner ensures local raw material procurement. Working capital can be formed based on mutually agreed equity shares. Once product quality standards are established alongside market pricing and sales cost assessments, this framework will expand Uzbekistan’s exports of equipment and technical services while boosting local value addition and employment in Afghanistan.
A major transport initiative in this context is the Trans-Afghan Railway. On July 17, 2025, Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan signed a trilateral agreement to draft its feasibility study. The project envisions a route passing through Termez, Naibabad, Maidan Shar, Logar, and Kharlachi. Once completed and linked with Pakistan’s transport grid, this project will vastly expand Uzbekistan’s access to South Asian markets. Exporters will be able to select routes based on cargo specifications, transport tariffs, and delivery timelines, thereby boosting supply chain diversification and operational flexibility.
To ensure small enterprises can leverage this opportunity, the development of consolidated small-cargo dispatch services involving trade and logistics operators in Termez is proposed. The operator can aggregate orders from multiple exporters, consolidating shipments according to destination and delivery deadlines. Storage, refrigeration, sorting, and packaging services would be billed according to pre-published tariffs. This approach distributes shipping costs among multiple exporters and minimizes spoilage losses for perishable produce. For Uzbekistan, the economic outcome is reflected in a wider pool of exporting enterprises and increased revenues from logistics services.
Transport efficiency is also contingent upon smooth border-crossing procedures. In this regard, effectively utilizing existing cooperation mechanisms is vital. Specifically, during negotiations between the Ministers of Transport of Uzbekistan and Afghanistan in July 2026, agreement was reached to convene the next meeting of the intergovernmental working group tasked with optimizing carrier fees. Within this working group, strengthening cooperation with customs authorities and refining mechanisms for regular consultations with business representatives is highly recommended. Priority areas should include pre-arrival electronic data exchange, the reduction of redundant documentation requirements, and timely notification of tariff adjustments. Systematically summarizing business grievances, assigning responsible agencies with clear execution deadlines, and monitoring outcomes will enhance transparency across border-crossing procedures, enabling exporters to plan delivery schedules more accurately, reduce warehousing expenses, and optimize working capital.
Energy cooperation serves as a practical bedrock for joint manufacturing. According to the Ministry of Energy of Uzbekistan (November 17, 2025), a power supply contract was signed with the Afghan side for the year 2026. The World Bank identifies unreliable electricity supply as a primary constraint on the growth of Afghan enterprises. Stable power supplies minimize equipment downtime and ensure orders are fulfilled on schedule. Therefore, joint venture projects must pre-calculate electricity demands, grid connection fees, and maintenance costs. For Uzbekistan, this represents an opportunity to couple energy exports with industrial cooperation, while partner enterprises gain stable access to operational capacities.
The experience accumulated in Termez is invaluable for supplying infrastructure and manufacturing initiatives with skilled personnel. According to UNDP final reports from June 25, 2026, over 700 students gained access to bachelor’s degree programs and specialized vocational training through an EU-funded project, complemented by funding and equipment allocations for entrepreneurial ventures. Subsequent programs focusing on enterprise-commissioned specialist training, on-site internships, and job placement assistance will help satisfy the labor requirements of industrial projects.
Educational cooperation must also expand opportunities for girls and women. According to UNESCO data from August 2026, 2.4 million girls in Afghanistan remain excluded from secondary education. Restoring their right to study is essential for the country’s human capital capacity and family welfare. Expanding international scholarship programs, vocational training opportunities, and creating secure learning environments directly serve this objective.
Humanitarian diplomacy similarly reinforces the recovery process. Since 2025, the UNHCR has integrated the logistics hub in Termez into its global network of humanitarian reserves. Combining emergency relief with vocational training and livelihood restoration programs assists families in achieving self-reliance and independent incomes.
The efficacy of economic cooperation is measured not by the volume of signed agreements or declarations, but primarily by their practical outcomes. Consequently, it is vital to regularly evaluate the impact of joint projects on employment, entrepreneurship, and living standards. In this regard, the Regional SDG Centre for Central Asia and Afghanistan in Almaty—established pursuant to UN General Assembly Resolution 79/268—provides additional avenues for sharing best practices, coordinating efforts, and maximizing cooperation efficiency.
From this perspective, the future of relations between Uzbekistan and Afghanistan hinges not only on expanding trade ties, but also on deepening mutually beneficial economic integration. Uzbekistan’s proactive initiatives in this domain can serve to integrate Afghanistan more fully into regional economic processes, strengthen connectivity between Central and South Asia, and unlock new avenues for sustainable development across the wider region.
Alisher Azizov,
Chief Specialist at the NGO "Center for Sustainable Development"